⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/20/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bearish below 6,900
Theme: Heavy 6,900–6,930 supply → 6,850 breakdown watch

🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

• Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.

• Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.

• Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.

🧭 Context

Supply remains heavy between 6,900–6,930.
Markets continue to probe this zone and fail to break through.

The real pivot today is lower:

👉 6,863 / 6,850

Yesterday ES broke 6,863, but NQ did not break its PDL — that divergence mattered.
Watch that relationship again today.

Clean continuation only happens if 6,850 breaks and sticks.

Above 20/50DMA (inside 6,900–6,930) is the only place bulls regain control.

This is a structure day.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,863 / 6,850 — Immediate breakdown pivot

• 6,814 / 6,800 — January low / psych level

• 6,770 — December low

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,900 — Reclaim pivot

• 6,930 — 20/50DMA major supply

🔴 A+ Setup — 6,850 Breakdown (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,850
Trigger:

• 30-min close below

• Failed reclaim

• NQ confirms weakness

Targets:

• 6,814

• 6,800

• Extension: 6,770

Stop:

• Clean reclaim of 6,863

Below 6,850, this should flow.

🔴 Major Supply Rejection

Zone: 6,900–6,930
Trigger:

• Push into supply

• Stall / upper wicks

• No acceptance above

Targets:

• 6,863

• 6,850

Stop:

• Clean 30-min close above 6,930

Heavy supply until proven otherwise.

🟢 Bullish Shift Scenario

Condition: Acceptance above 6,930 (20/50DMA reclaim)

Targets:

• Expansion higher (range extension)

But until that happens, rallies are suspect.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ NQ confirms structure
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at key levels

⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No shorting directly into 6,800

🧠 Mindset Notes

6,850 decides continuation.
6,900–6,930 decides rejection.

If breakdown confirms → press.
If supply rejects → fade.
If 20/50DMA reclaims → reassess bias.

Location > emotion.
Wait for confirmation, then execute.

SPY (1HR)

Rejections between 686/689 are clear as day... rejecting the 20/50DMA as well. Need to see the follow through to the downside begin for a nice setup.

Want to see us under 682. Will have to be cautious of the 100DMA below at 680. Below that, into the 676.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template

• New Zero Day merch