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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/20/26
2/20/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bearish below 6,900
Theme: Heavy 6,900–6,930 supply → 6,850 breakdown watch
🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass.
Match size and frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it.
Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcing offense.
🧭 Context
Supply remains heavy between 6,900–6,930.
Markets continue to probe this zone and fail to break through.
The real pivot today is lower:
👉 6,863 / 6,850
Yesterday ES broke 6,863, but NQ did not break its PDL — that divergence mattered.
Watch that relationship again today.
Clean continuation only happens if 6,850 breaks and sticks.
Above 20/50DMA (inside 6,900–6,930) is the only place bulls regain control.
This is a structure day.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,863 / 6,850 — Immediate breakdown pivot
6,814 / 6,800 — January low / psych level
6,770 — December low
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,900 — Reclaim pivot
6,930 — 20/50DMA major supply
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,850 Breakdown (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance below 6,850
Trigger:
30-min close below
Failed reclaim
NQ confirms weakness
Targets:
6,814
6,800
Extension: 6,770
Stop:
Clean reclaim of 6,863
Below 6,850, this should flow.
🔴 Major Supply Rejection
Zone: 6,900–6,930
Trigger:
Push into supply
Stall / upper wicks
No acceptance above
Targets:
6,863
6,850
Stop:
Clean 30-min close above 6,930
Heavy supply until proven otherwise.
🟢 Bullish Shift Scenario
Condition: Acceptance above 6,930 (20/50DMA reclaim)
Targets:
Expansion higher (range extension)
But until that happens, rallies are suspect.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ NQ confirms structure
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at key levels
⏳ Best window: 10:00–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No shorting directly into 6,800
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,850 decides continuation.
6,900–6,930 decides rejection.
If breakdown confirms → press.
If supply rejects → fade.
If 20/50DMA reclaims → reassess bias.
Location > emotion.
Wait for confirmation, then execute.
SPY (1HR)
Rejections between 686/689 are clear as day... rejecting the 20/50DMA as well. Need to see the follow through to the downside begin for a nice setup.
Want to see us under 682. Will have to be cautious of the 100DMA below at 680. Below that, into the 676.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
