Unlock exclusive discounts on trading tools!
⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/19/26
2/19/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bearish below 6,900
Theme: 6,920 rejection → PDL pivot → Structure test
🧭 Context
Yesterday played clean — reclaim of 6,900 into heavy supply at 6,920–6,930, and that zone did its job.
We are now turning last week’s Mon/Wed lows into rejections.
If that sticks, bearish structure remains intact.
Today’s key pivot:
👉 6,863 (PDL area / 100DMA zone)
Below it → continuation pressure
Above 6,900 → bounce attempt
I am cautious with longs unless we reclaim structure.
The real long only exists north of the 20/50DMA (6,920–6,931).
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,863 — PDL / 100DMA pivot
6,814 / 6,800 — January low / psych
6,770 / 6,750 — Breakdown extension
6,680 — Lower support pocket
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,868 / 6,864.50 — Immediate pivot
6,900 — Reclaim level
6,921–6,931 — 20/50DMA major supply
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,863 Failure Short (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance below 6,863
Trigger:
30-min close below
Failed reclaim of 100DMA
Lower high into resistance
Targets:
6,814
6,800
Stop:
Clean reclaim of 6,900
Notes:
Failure below PDL opens rotation back to January lows.
This is continuation structure.
🟢 Tactical Long — 6,900 Reclaim
Zone: Acceptance above 6,900
Trigger:
Strong push and hold
Buyers defend pullback
Targets:
6,920
6,931
Stop:
Loss of 6,900 after reclaim
Notes:
Scalp long only unless 20/50DMA clears.
True shift requires acceptance above 6,931.
🔴 Major Supply Rejection
Zone: 6,920–6,931
Trigger:
Push into zone
Stall / upper wicks
No strong acceptance above
Targets:
6,900
6,863
Stop:
Clean 30-min close above 6,931
This remains heavy supply until proven otherwise.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ 30-min directional close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at levels
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing breakdowns into 6,800
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,863 decides downside.
6,900 decides bounce.
6,920 decides structure shift.
If PDL fails → press.
If 6,900 reclaims → scalp.
If 20/50DMA clears → bias shifts.
React to the level. Not the narrative.
SPY (30min)
Nice touch of the 20DMA & Wednesday lows at 689. Rejections right off that level, perfect.
Today, we are back at the PDL & if we fail that, id like downside look towards 680 & the 100DMA. which is a nice spot to take advantage.
I would need to see SPY above the 20DMA for any real upside continuation trades.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
