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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/18/26
2/18/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → 6,900 decides
Theme: Reclaim vs Rejection at 6,900
🧭 Context
Today is simple — it’s all about 6,900.
Holding above 6,900 opens room toward:
6,920 (Wednesday low)
20/50DMA (6,920–6,931)
A reclaim of those DMAs is the true bullish shift.
Below 6,900, pressure rotates back toward:
6,868 (100DMA area)
6,814 / 6,800 (January low + psych)
Buyers defended January lows and 6,800 yesterday — that support matters.
We are trading between reclaim potential above and strong support below.
Key pivot today: 👉 6,900
Above it → continuation attempt
Below it → failure back into range
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,863 — PDL / 100DMA pivot
6,814 / 6,800 — January low / psych
6,770 / 6,750 — Breakdown extension
6,680 — Lower support pocket
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,868 / 6,864.50 — Immediate pivot
6,900 — Reclaim level
6,921–6,934 — 20/50DMA major supply
🔴 A+ Setup — 6,863 Failure Short (Primary)
Zone: Acceptance below 6,863
Trigger:
30-min close below
Failed reclaim of 100DMA
Lower high into resistance
Targets:
6,814
6,800
Stop:
Clean reclaim of 6,900
Notes:
Failure below PDL opens rotation back to January lows.
This is continuation structure.
🟢 Tactical Long — 6,900 Reclaim
Zone: Acceptance above 6,900
Trigger:
Strong push and hold
Buyers defend pullback
Targets:
6,920
6,931
Stop:
Loss of 6,900 after reclaim
Notes:
Scalp long only unless 20/50DMA clears.
True shift requires acceptance above 6,931.
🔴 Major Supply Rejection
Zone: 6,920–6,931
Trigger:
Push into zone
Stall / upper wicks
No strong acceptance above
Targets:
6,900
6,863
Stop:
Clean 30-min close above 6,931
This remains heavy supply until proven otherwise.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ 30-min directional close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at key levels
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades
🚫 No chasing breakdown into 6,800
🧠 Mindset Notes
6,863 decides downside.
6,900 decides bounce.
6,920 decides structure shift.
If PDL fails → press.
If 6,900 reclaims → scalp.
If 20/50DMA clears → bias shifts.
React to the level. Not the narrative.
SPY (30min)
We saw hit of the 20DMA & Wednesday lows at 689. Rejections right off that level, picture perfect.
Today, we are back at the PDL & if we fail that, Im looking downside towards 680 & the 100DMA. A nice spot to take advantage.
I would need to see SPY above the 20DMA for any real upside continuation trades.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
