⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/17/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bearish below 6,870
Theme: Back inside range → Below key MAs → Decision at 6,870

🧭 Context

We’re back inside Friday’s range (6,808–6,897) after continued weakness from the 7,000 rejection.

Price is:

• Below 100DMA (6,880)

• Well below 20/50DMA (6,931–6,935)

That keeps higher timeframe pressure down.

Below us:

• 6,814 (Jan low)

• 6,771 (Dec low)

• 6,618 (200DMA)

Today’s pivot is clear:
👉 6,870–6,880

Above it = bounce attempt
Below it = trend pressure intact

This is a reaction day, not a prediction day.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,814 / 6,800 — Major hold zone / January low

• 6,770 / 6,750 — Breakdown extension

• 6,680 — Lower support pocket

• 6,618 (200DMA) — Major HTF support

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,868 / 6,863 — First failure zone

• 6,900 — Reclaim pivot

• 6,931–6,935 — 20/50DMA supply

🔴 A+ Setup — 6,870 Rejection

Zone: 6,870–6,880
Trigger:

• Push into 100DMA

• Stall / upper wicks

• No 30-min acceptance above

Targets:

• 6,814

• 6,771

Stop:
30-min close above 6,880

Rallies are suspect until 6,931 is reclaimed.

🟢 Tactical Bounce — 6,814 Hold

Zone: 6,814
Trigger:

• Flush + strong reaction

• Selling fails to continue

Targets:

• 6,850

• 6,870

Stop:
Acceptance below 6,800

Do not press shorts into this level.

🔴 Breakdown Continuation

Trigger:
Acceptance below 6,800

Targets:

• 6,771

• 6,618

Momentum increases below 6,800.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ 30-min directional close
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade only at levels

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range trades

🧠 Mindset Notes

6,870 decides direction.
6,814 decides bounce vs continuation.

One clean level. One clean execution.

SPY (1HR)

Price is testing the 100DMA (679.05) and already pushed through to 677.52. This area is a reaction zone — be cautious pressing fresh shorts directly into it. Clean fade levels: 686, 690, Fails at 20/50DMA (high R/R zone)

If we lose 678.50 cleanly, continuation lower opens. Below that: 673.95 , 671 (December low)

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template