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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/13/26
2/13/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Cautious → Prefer fade of strength
Theme: Post-7,000 rejection → Retest failure → CPI volatility
🧭 Context
7,000 finally did its job — buyers pushed for multiple sessions and ran out of fuel. We got the rejection.
Today we have CPI pre-market, so expect expansion and fake moves early.
Key principle:
👉 Do NOT press shorts into lows
👉 Let resistance get tested
👉 Trade reactions, not headlines
The cleanest idea remains a retest and rejection of 6,920–6,931.
We never got a proper failure there yesterday — unfinished business.
Below 6,800 sits major support (January low area). That’s not a great place to initiate fresh shorts unless momentum is extreme.
This is a structure day, not a prediction day.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,814 / 6,800 — Major hold zone / January low
6,770 / 6,750 — Breakdown extension
6,680 — Lower support pocket
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,868 / 6,863 — First failure zone
6,900 — Reclaim pivot
6,921–6,931 — Ideal retest rejection area
🔴 A+ Setup — Retest Rejection Short (Primary)
Zone: 6,920–6,931
Trigger:
Push into level
Stall / upper wicks
Delta fades or turns negative
No strong acceptance above
Targets:
6,900
6,868
Extension: 6,814 / 6,800
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 6,931
Notes:
This is the cleanest location on the board.
We want a retest and fail — not chasing breakdowns.
🔴 Secondary Short — 6,868 / 6,900 Failure
Zone: 6,868–6,900
Trigger:
Failed breakout
Lower high on retest
VWAP overhead
100DMA rejection
Targets:
6,814
6,800
Stop:
Strong reclaim and hold above 6,900
Notes:
If 6,920 never gets touched, this becomes your actionable zone.
🟢 Bullish Reclaim Setup
Zone: Reclaim above 6,900
Trigger:
Strong push and hold
Acceptance above 6,900
Delta positive
Holding above 20/50DMA
Targets:
6,920
6,931
Stop:
Loss of 6,900 after reclaim
Notes:
Back above the 20/50DMA strengthens upside continuation.
If bulls reclaim structure, don’t fight it.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ Delta confirms move
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Reaction at level — not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing CPI spikes
🚫 No initiating fresh shorts directly into 6,800
🧠 Mindset Notes
You don’t need to catch the CPI move.
You need to catch the reaction to it.
If we retest supply → execute.
If we chop mid-range → do less.
If we flush into 6,800 → be cautious pressing.
Today is location > emotion.
Protect capital first.
SPY (4HR & 1HR)
This 100DMA here at 678.50/680 will be a big spot... cautious shorting into it. I'd much prefer a pop & fade at the 686 or higher at the 690. Look for fails back at the 20/50DMA, that's a high R/R short.
If we fail 678.50, we are going lower into 676 & January lows which would also be lows of the year.
We have Dec lows at 671 as well.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
