⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/13/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Cautious → Prefer fade of strength
Theme: Post-7,000 rejection → Retest failure → CPI volatility

🧭 Context

7,000 finally did its job — buyers pushed for multiple sessions and ran out of fuel. We got the rejection.

Today we have CPI pre-market, so expect expansion and fake moves early.

Key principle:
👉 Do NOT press shorts into lows
👉 Let resistance get tested
👉 Trade reactions, not headlines

The cleanest idea remains a retest and rejection of 6,920–6,931.
We never got a proper failure there yesterday — unfinished business.

Below 6,800 sits major support (January low area). That’s not a great place to initiate fresh shorts unless momentum is extreme.

This is a structure day, not a prediction day.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,814 / 6,800 — Major hold zone / January low

• 6,770 / 6,750 — Breakdown extension

• 6,680 — Lower support pocket

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,868 / 6,863 — First failure zone

• 6,900 — Reclaim pivot

• 6,921–6,931 — Ideal retest rejection area

🔴 A+ Setup — Retest Rejection Short (Primary)

Zone: 6,920–6,931
Trigger:

• Push into level

• Stall / upper wicks

• Delta fades or turns negative

• No strong acceptance above

Targets:

• 6,900

• 6,868

• Extension: 6,814 / 6,800

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 6,931

Notes:
This is the cleanest location on the board.
We want a retest and fail — not chasing breakdowns.

🔴 Secondary Short — 6,868 / 6,900 Failure

Zone: 6,868–6,900
Trigger:

• Failed breakout

• Lower high on retest

• VWAP overhead

• 100DMA rejection

Targets:

• 6,814

• 6,800

Stop:

• Strong reclaim and hold above 6,900

Notes:
If 6,920 never gets touched, this becomes your actionable zone.

🟢 Bullish Reclaim Setup

Zone: Reclaim above 6,900
Trigger:

• Strong push and hold

• Acceptance above 6,900

• Delta positive

• Holding above 20/50DMA

Targets:

• 6,920

• 6,931

Stop:

• Loss of 6,900 after reclaim

Notes:
Back above the 20/50DMA strengthens upside continuation.
If bulls reclaim structure, don’t fight it.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional 30-min close
2️⃣ Delta confirms move
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Reaction at level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing CPI spikes
🚫 No initiating fresh shorts directly into 6,800

🧠 Mindset Notes

You don’t need to catch the CPI move.
You need to catch the reaction to it.

If we retest supply → execute.
If we chop mid-range → do less.
If we flush into 6,800 → be cautious pressing.

Today is location > emotion.

Protect capital first.

SPY (4HR & 1HR)

This 100DMA here at 678.50/680 will be a big spot... cautious shorting into it. I'd much prefer a pop & fade at the 686 or higher at the 690. Look for fails back at the 20/50DMA, that's a high R/R short.

If we fail 678.50, we are going lower into 676 & January lows which would also be lows of the year.

We have Dec lows at 671 as well.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template