⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/11/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1 HR
Bias: Neutral → Prefer pullback before continuation
Theme: 7,000 wall → Pullback test → Structure decides

🧭 Context

7,000 is doing what big psych levels do — stalling price.

I don’t want to be aggressive long into that ceiling. If we’re going higher, it should come from a better location, not from chasing round numbers.

The cleaner idea:
👉 Pull back into 6,920 / 20–50DMA
👉 Let buyers prove themselves
👉 If 6,920 fails, low-volume pocket opens

This is a location game today. Patience > prediction.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 20 / 50 DMA — First pullback test

• 6,920 — Monday low / key structure

• 6,870 — 100DMA / LVN fill destination

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,000–7,006 — Psych wall / immediate ceiling

• 7,030–7,043 — ATH test zone

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 20/50DMA into 6,920
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback (not a flush)

• Rejection wicks at support

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• No acceptance below 6,920

Targets:

• 7,000

• 7,006

• Extension: 7,030

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,920

Notes:
We want a retest and defend, not a straight-line continuation.
If it holds cleanly, that’s your fuel for upside.

🔴 Breakdown Setup — LVN Fill Short

Zone: Acceptance below 6,920
Trigger:

• Clean loss of 6,920

• Failed reclaim

• Lower high on retest

• Delta negative

• VWAP above price

Targets:

• 6,886

• 6,870 (100DMA / LVN fill)

Stop:

• Reclaim above 6,920

Notes:
Below 6,920 the market likely moves faster — that’s a thin pocket.
This is where shorts become interesting.

🟡 Upper Supply Rejection

Zone: 7,000–7,006
Trigger:

• Pop into level

• Immediate stall

• Absorption at highs

Targets:

• 6,920

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 7,006

Notes:
Do not chase breakouts into 7,000. Let it clear first.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle
2️⃣ Delta confirms
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Reaction at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-channel trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a location over emotion session.

If we pull back → great.
If we break down → act cleanly.
If we sit under 7,000 and chop → do less.

You don’t get paid for predicting 7,000.
You get paid for trading the reaction to it.

SPY (30Min)

Being long with the SPY just sitting right below this major ATH... not much risk/reward. Not much run way to make a nice move. I would much prefer we get a pullback to setup a nice pullback long. I like a pullback towards the 20DMA or deeper at the 688 Monday low & 50DMA.

If we lose the 50DMA & Monday low, we could see the pullback towards 682/684.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template