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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/10/26
2/10/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1 HR
Bias: Neutral → Bullish if structure holds
Theme: Higher-low test → Continuation only if earned
🧭 Context
We’re at an important decision area. The 6,969–6,981 zone is now the referee.
If this area holds as a higher low, ES has a real shot to continue higher.
This is not a chase environment. It’s a pullback & prove-it market.
Key idea today:
👉 Hold above prior resistance = continuation
👉 Lose 6,920 = rotation back to the 100DMA
👉 Until then, stay patient and trade reactions
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,969–6,981 — Higher-low zone / former supply
20 & 50 DMA — Pullback buy candidates
6,920 — Line in the sand
6,870 — 100DMA / downside magnet if 6,920 fails
🟥 Resistance / Supply
7,030–7,043 — Major upside test / rejection zone
6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone
7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly
🟢 A+ Setup — Higher-Low Continuation Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,969–6,981 or 20/50DMA pullback
Trigger:
Pullback holds above 6,969
No acceptance below 6,920
Buyers defend structure
Delta stabilizes / turns positive
VWAP supports price
Targets:
7,030
Extension: 7,043
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,920
Notes:
This is a structure long, not a breakout chase.
Let price come to you.
🔴 Secondary Setup — Failure & Rotation Short (Conditional)
Zone: Acceptance below 6,920
Trigger:
Loss of 6,920
Failed reclaim
Lower high on retest
Delta flips negative
VWAP caps price
Targets:
6,870 (100DMA)
Stop:
Reclaim back above 6,920
Notes:
No shorts into support.
This only activates if structure clearly breaks.
🟡 Rejection Fade — Upper Supply Short
Zone: 7,030–7,043
Trigger:
Push into supply
Immediate rejection
Absorption at highs
Delta divergence
Targets:
6,981
6,969
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 7,043
Notes:
Fade the reaction, not the number.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Reaction at the level, not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range boredom trades
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a professional patience day.
Above 6,969 → stay constructive.
Below 6,920 → flip the script.
In between → do nothing and feel good about it.
The market will show its hand.
Your job is to not flinch before it does.
SPY (30Min)
The 50DMA & Thursday PMH at 687.50 is now a very key spot to be watching. That hold early morning was the key for upside intra-day.
We are now above the 693/694 previous rejection zone. If we see this turn into new lows today, we are going to ATH on SPY towards that 698/700 high.
I would only look for short side here if we fail PDL & the 50DMA for a downside move into 684
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
