⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 02/10/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1 HR
Bias: Neutral → Bullish if structure holds
Theme: Higher-low test → Continuation only if earned

🧭 Context

We’re at an important decision area. The 6,969–6,981 zone is now the referee.
If this area holds as a higher low, ES has a real shot to continue higher.

This is not a chase environment. It’s a pullback & prove-it market.

Key idea today:
👉 Hold above prior resistance = continuation
👉 Lose 6,920 = rotation back to the 100DMA
👉 Until then, stay patient and trade reactions

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,969–6,981 — Higher-low zone / former supply

• 20 & 50 DMA — Pullback buy candidates

• 6,920 — Line in the sand

• 6,870 — 100DMA / downside magnet if 6,920 fails

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,030–7,043 — Major upside test / rejection zone

• 6,969–6,981 — Major rejection zone

• 7,030 — Only if 6,981 clears cleanly

🟢 A+ Setup — Higher-Low Continuation Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,969–6,981 or 20/50DMA pullback
Trigger:

• Pullback holds above 6,969

• No acceptance below 6,920

• Buyers defend structure

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP supports price

Targets:

• 7,030

• Extension: 7,043

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,920

Notes:
This is a structure long, not a breakout chase.
Let price come to you.

🔴 Secondary Setup — Failure & Rotation Short (Conditional)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,920
Trigger:

• Loss of 6,920

• Failed reclaim

• Lower high on retest

• Delta flips negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,870 (100DMA)

Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,920

Notes:
No shorts into support.
This only activates if structure clearly breaks.

🟡 Rejection Fade — Upper Supply Short

Zone: 7,030–7,043
Trigger:

• Push into supply

• Immediate rejection

• Absorption at highs

• Delta divergence

Targets:

• 6,981

• 6,969

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 7,043

Notes:
Fade the reaction, not the number.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Reaction at the level, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range boredom trades

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a professional patience day.

Above 6,969 → stay constructive.
Below 6,920 → flip the script.
In between → do nothing and feel good about it.

The market will show its hand.
Your job is to not flinch before it does.

SPY (30Min)

The 50DMA & Thursday PMH at 687.50 is now a very key spot to be watching. That hold early morning was the key for upside intra-day.

We are now above the 693/694 previous rejection zone. If we see this turn into new lows today, we are going to ATH on SPY towards that 698/700 high.

I would only look for short side here if we fail PDL & the 50DMA for a downside move into 684

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template