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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/30/26
1/30/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at the 20DMA
Theme: Lower-high risk vs reclaim → Moving averages decide direction
🧭 Context
Today is a decision day.
The 6,964 + 20DMA zone is the pivot.
How price behaves here determines whether this market:
• Forms another lower high, or
• Reclaims structure and rotates back toward ATHs.
Primary idea:
👉 Let price test the 20DMA
👉 Trade the reaction, not the anticipation
👉 Avoid mid-range noise
Market personality:
• Two-way trade early
• Clean reactions at MAs
• Direction shows after acceptance or rejection
Patience > prediction.
📊 Key Levels
📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)
7,044.25 — 38.2% extension
7,051.00 — 50.0% extension
7,066.25 — 76.4% extension
🟩 Support / Demand
6,925–6,904 — 50DMA / primary dip-buy zone
6,880 — Secondary support
6,863 — 100DMA / major downside magnet
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,964–6,973.50 — 20DMA / decision zone
6,995–7,002 — Supply → gateway back to ATHs
🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim & Continuation Long
Zone: Acceptance above 6,973
Trigger:
Reclaim and hold of 20DMA
Strong close above 6,964
Positive delta expansion
VWAP flips below price
Targets:
6,995
7,002
Extension: ATHs if momentum holds
Stop:
Acceptance back below 6,964
Notes:
This is a confirmation trade, not a chase.
No acceptance = no long.
🔴 A+ Setup — Lower High Rejection Short
Zone: 6,964–6,973.50
Trigger:
Push into 20DMA
Stall or rejection
Lower high forms
Delta divergence / absorption at highs
VWAP caps price
Targets:
6,925–6,904 (50DMA)
Extension: 6,880
Stretch: 6,863 (100DMA)
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 6,973.50
Notes:
This is the textbook lower-high trade.
Let it come to you.
🟡 Secondary Setup — Dip Buy (Conditional)
Zone: 6,925–6,904
Trigger:
Controlled selloff
Buyers step in at 50DMA
Absorption on the bid
Delta stabilizes or flips positive
Targets:
6,964
6,973 if strength builds
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,904
Notes:
Reaction only — not a swing.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No forcing trades. No boredom clicks.
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a structure test, not a speed race.
And let’s be crystal clear:
🍼 Baby account stays CLOSED early.
Wait.
React.
Execute once.
SPY (30Min)
Our golden zone held strong yesterday. 684/687 will be a massive low to hold onto. Below the 684.77 & 50DMA, we could see SPY aggressively lower into the 679 level.
For now, we are reclaiming the 20DMA & 691 highs from last week. Something to watch for holds today.
Target on upside would be the 694/695 rejections. That will be a tough spot to get back above.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
