⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/30/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at the 20DMA
Theme: Lower-high risk vs reclaim → Moving averages decide direction

🧭 Context

Today is a decision day.

The 6,964 + 20DMA zone is the pivot.
How price behaves here determines whether this market:
• Forms another lower high, or
• Reclaims structure and rotates back toward ATHs.

Primary idea:
👉 Let price test the 20DMA
👉 Trade the reaction, not the anticipation
👉 Avoid mid-range noise

Market personality:
• Two-way trade early
• Clean reactions at MAs
• Direction shows after acceptance or rejection

Patience > prediction.

📊 Key Levels

📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)
7,044.25 — 38.2% extension
7,051.00 — 50.0% extension
7,066.25 — 76.4% extension

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,925–6,904 — 50DMA / primary dip-buy zone

• 6,880 — Secondary support

• 6,863 — 100DMA / major downside magnet

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,964–6,973.50 — 20DMA / decision zone

• 6,995–7,002 — Supply → gateway back to ATHs

🟢 A+ Setup — Reclaim & Continuation Long

Zone: Acceptance above 6,973
Trigger:

• Reclaim and hold of 20DMA

• Strong close above 6,964

• Positive delta expansion

• VWAP flips below price

Targets:

• 6,995

• 7,002

• Extension: ATHs if momentum holds

Stop:

• Acceptance back below 6,964

Notes:
This is a confirmation trade, not a chase.
No acceptance = no long.

🔴 A+ Setup — Lower High Rejection Short

Zone: 6,964–6,973.50
Trigger:

• Push into 20DMA

• Stall or rejection

• Lower high forms

• Delta divergence / absorption at highs

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,925–6,904 (50DMA)

• Extension: 6,880

• Stretch: 6,863 (100DMA)

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 6,973.50

Notes:
This is the textbook lower-high trade.
Let it come to you.

🟡 Secondary Setup — Dip Buy (Conditional)

Zone: 6,925–6,904
Trigger:

• Controlled selloff

• Buyers step in at 50DMA

• Absorption on the bid

• Delta stabilizes or flips positive

Targets:

• 6,964

• 6,973 if strength builds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,904

Notes:
Reaction only — not a swing.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No forcing trades. No boredom clicks.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a structure test, not a speed race.

And let’s be crystal clear:
🍼 Baby account stays CLOSED early.

Wait.
React.
Execute once.

SPY (30Min)

Our golden zone held strong yesterday. 684/687 will be a massive low to hold onto. Below the 684.77 & 50DMA, we could see SPY aggressively lower into the 679 level.

For now, we are reclaiming the 20DMA & 691 highs from last week. Something to watch for holds today.

Target on upside would be the 694/695 rejections. That will be a tough spot to get back above.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template