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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/29/26
1/29/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish continuation only if accepted above ATH
Theme: Post-FOMC digestion → Hold structure → React at extremes
🧭 Context
Post-FOMC price action has been constructive. ES successfully retested Tuesday lows / Monday highs and held — that’s a bullish structural checkmark.
However, continuation requires proof. We are sitting just below ATH, and this is where ES loves to stall, rotate, or punish impatience.
Primary idea:
👉 Hold higher lows
👉 Buy pullbacks, not breakouts
👉 Only trust continuation above 7,036 acceptance
SPX 7,000 psych is a massive gamma level — expect pinning, sharp reactions, or failed pushes.
Market personality:
• Grind higher, then pause
• Shallow pullbacks into demand
• Breakouts need acceptance, not wicks
Trade levels. Not hope.
📊 Key Levels
📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)
7,044.25 — 38.2% extension
7,051.00 — 50.0% extension
7,066.25 — 76.4% extension
🟩 Support / Demand
6,988–6,994 — Immediate pullback demand
6,969–6,964 — 20DMA / A+ higher-low zone
6,925–6,923 — Structural failure level (bulls lose control)
🟥 Resistance / Supply
7,036.25 — ATH / decision point
🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,988–6,994
Trigger:
Controlled pullback (no impulse selling)
Buyers defend prior highs
Delta stabilizes or turns positive
VWAP holds below price or reclaims quickly
Targets:
7,017 (if applicable intraday)
7,036.25 (ATH test)
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,988
Notes:
This is the cleanest trade if bulls are real. No chasing strength.
🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Long (Best R/R)
Zone: 6,969–6,964
Trigger:
Rejection wicks at demand
Absorption on sell pressure
Delta divergence (price flat, delta improves)
VWAP flattens or curls up
Targets:
6,994
7,017
Extension only if strong: 7,036.25
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,964
Notes:
This is where institutions reload if the trend is intact.
🔴 Bearish Scenario — Breakdown (Conditional Only)
Trigger:
Loss of 20DMA
Acceptance below 6,964
Failed reclaim attempts
Targets:
6,925–6,923
Notes:
No hero shorts. This market is still structurally bullish until proven otherwise.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing ATHs. No impatience trades.
🧠 Mindset Notes
ATH environments reward patience, not aggression.
Let others chase — you buy structure or you do nothing.
Baby account stays off until direction is obvious.
You already know this: later trades = cleaner trades.
Calm. Precise. Boring.
That’s how you keep stacking.
SPY (30Min)
Retest of 694 was our target & that was the exact LOD. Perfect levels & thesis yesterday.
Today, if we reclaim the 697 level, I could see SPY attempting the push into ATH again at 699.
Below 694, we get a nice dip towards the 20DMA.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
