⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/29/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish continuation only if accepted above ATH
Theme: Post-FOMC digestion → Hold structure → React at extremes

🧭 Context

Post-FOMC price action has been constructive. ES successfully retested Tuesday lows / Monday highs and held — that’s a bullish structural checkmark.

However, continuation requires proof. We are sitting just below ATH, and this is where ES loves to stall, rotate, or punish impatience.

Primary idea:
👉 Hold higher lows
👉 Buy pullbacks, not breakouts
👉 Only trust continuation above 7,036 acceptance

SPX 7,000 psych is a massive gamma level — expect pinning, sharp reactions, or failed pushes.

Market personality:
• Grind higher, then pause
• Shallow pullbacks into demand
• Breakouts need acceptance, not wicks

Trade levels. Not hope.

📊 Key Levels

📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)
7,044.25 — 38.2% extension
7,051.00 — 50.0% extension
7,066.25 — 76.4% extension

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,988–6,994 — Immediate pullback demand

• 6,969–6,964 — 20DMA / A+ higher-low zone

• 6,925–6,923 — Structural failure level (bulls lose control)

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,036.25 — ATH / decision point

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,988–6,994
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback (no impulse selling)

• Buyers defend prior highs

• Delta stabilizes or turns positive

• VWAP holds below price or reclaims quickly

Targets:

• 7,017 (if applicable intraday)

• 7,036.25 (ATH test)

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,988

Notes:
This is the cleanest trade if bulls are real. No chasing strength.

🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Long (Best R/R)

Zone: 6,969–6,964
Trigger:

• Rejection wicks at demand

• Absorption on sell pressure

• Delta divergence (price flat, delta improves)

• VWAP flattens or curls up

Targets:

• 6,994

• 7,017

• Extension only if strong: 7,036.25

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,964

Notes:
This is where institutions reload if the trend is intact.

🔴 Bearish Scenario — Breakdown (Conditional Only)

Trigger:

• Loss of 20DMA

• Acceptance below 6,964

• Failed reclaim attempts

Targets:

• 6,925–6,923

Notes:
No hero shorts. This market is still structurally bullish until proven otherwise.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing ATHs. No impatience trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

ATH environments reward patience, not aggression.
Let others chase — you buy structure or you do nothing.

Baby account stays off until direction is obvious.
You already know this: later trades = cleaner trades.

Calm. Precise. Boring.
That’s how you keep stacking.

SPY (30Min)

Retest of 694 was our target & that was the exact LOD. Perfect levels & thesis yesterday.

Today, if we reclaim the 697 level, I could see SPY attempting the push into ATH again at 699.

Below 694, we get a nice dip towards the 20DMA.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template