⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/28/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias:Bullish → Cautious at ATH
Theme: Structure reclaim → Expansion → Event-risk discipline

🧭 Context

The break and hold above 6,964–6,969 was textbook. Former structure flipped to support, consolidation did its job, and ES expanded higher exactly as it should.

Monday highs were reclaimed and defended — that opened the door to new ATHs, and now we’re pressing into 7,036.

Important wrinkle today:
👉 FOMC at 2:00 PM
👉 Elevated risk, fake moves, and fast reversals likely

This is a pullback-buy environment, not a chase environment — especially ahead of news.

Market personality:
• Strong structure
• Shallow pullbacks
• Event-driven volatility later

Trade the levels. Respect the clock.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 7,006–6,994 — Prior breakout support

• 6,969–6,964 — Structure highs / ideal pullback

• 6,925–6,923 — Deeper demand / last line

📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)
7,044.25 — 38.2% extension
7,051.00 — 50.0% extension
7,066.25 — 76.4% extension

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,036.25 — ATH / decision point

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,006–6,994
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback

• Higher low holds

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP supports price

Targets:

• 7,036.25 (ATH test)

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,994

Notes:
This is the cleanest trade if offered.
No chasing strength into ATH.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Structure Retest Long

Zone: 6,969–6,964 (20DMA area)
Trigger:

• Rejection wicks

• Absorption at lows

• Delta confirms

• VWAP flattens or curls up

Targets:

• 7,006

• 7,036 extension if momentum rebuilds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,964

Notes:
Ideal location if we get deeper rotation.

🔴 Breakdown Short (Conditional Only)

Zone: Acceptance below 20DMA / 6,964
Trigger:

• Failed reclaim

• Lower high forms

• Delta turns negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,925–6,923

Stop:

• Reclaim above 6,969

Notes:
No shorts while structure is intact.
This is only if buyers fail.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 Be careful into 2:00 PM FOMC — reduce size or step aside.

🧠 Mindset Notes

Structure is bullish — but events change behavior.
You don’t need to trade everything today.

Pullbacks > breakouts
Levels > opinions
Discipline > excitement

SPY (1 HR)

Pullbacks between 694/696 are likely the best entries here. Will look to see if we can retest those previous highs this week for new opportunities. Deeper pullbacks to the 690/691 are still good.

We are expanding over the 20DMA, eventually that pullback will come in. Maybe we get the 700 SPY target today.

FOMC at 2PM.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template