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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/27/26
1/27/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bullish → Reactive at ATH supply
Theme: Higher low → Grind higher → Caution at extremes
🧭 Context
ES is putting in a clean higher low, which matters.
As long as price holds above the prior highs 6,964–6,976, the path of least resistance stays higher.
This is a grind-up environment, not a rip-your-face-off trend:
👉 Pullbacks are opportunities
👉 Chasing highs is a mistake
👉 ATH supply must be respected
Market personality:
• Slow grind
• Shallow pullbacks
• Punishes impatience near highs
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,976–6,964 — Prior highs → must hold
6,925 — Rotation support
6,904 — Structural demand
6,880 — Failure acceleration level
🟥 Resistance / Supply
7,017–7,025 — ATH supply / decision zone
🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,976–6,964
Trigger:
Controlled pullback
Higher low holds
Delta stabilizes / turns positive
VWAP supports price
Targets:
7,000 (psych)
7,017–7,025 (ATH test)
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,964
Notes:
This is the cleanest trade.
Let price come to you — no chasing.
🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reaction Long
Zone: 20DMA (if tested)
Trigger:
Rejection wicks
Absorption at lows
Delta flips positive
VWAP flattens or curls up
Targets:
6,976
7,000+
Stop:
Acceptance below the 20DMA
Notes:
Tactical long only. Size down.
🔴 A+ Setup — ATH Rejection Short (Conditional)
Zone: 7,017–7,025
Trigger:
Push into ATH
Immediate rejection
Delta divergence
VWAP fails to follow
Targets:
6,976
6,964
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 7,025
Notes:
Only short at supply.
No mid-range hero shorts.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No boredom trades.
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a patience day.
The structure is bullish — let it pay you on pullbacks, not emotions.
And one more time so it sticks:
🍼 Baby account stays closed early.
Grind first. Direction later.
You already know where your best trades come from.
SPY (15Min)
Awesome holds of our 687 demand leading to a strong day yesterday. We were able to break above the previous week highs at 690.67/691.35. We now need to see those previous highs defend as new lows.
Would be great to get a SPY pullback to that demand. We are now up at the ATH 695. Will be cautious of any rejections up here.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
