⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/27/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Bullish → Reactive at ATH supply
Theme: Higher low → Grind higher → Caution at extremes

🧭 Context

ES is putting in a clean higher low, which matters.
As long as price holds above the prior highs 6,964–6,976, the path of least resistance stays higher.

This is a grind-up environment, not a rip-your-face-off trend:
👉 Pullbacks are opportunities
👉 Chasing highs is a mistake
👉 ATH supply must be respected

Market personality:
• Slow grind
• Shallow pullbacks
• Punishes impatience near highs

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,976–6,964 — Prior highs → must hold

• 6,925 — Rotation support

• 6,904 — Structural demand

• 6,880 — Failure acceleration level

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,017–7,025 — ATH supply / decision zone

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,976–6,964
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback

• Higher low holds

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP supports price

Targets:

• 7,000 (psych)

• 7,017–7,025 (ATH test)

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,964

Notes:
This is the cleanest trade.
Let price come to you — no chasing.

🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reaction Long

Zone: 20DMA (if tested)
Trigger:

• Rejection wicks

• Absorption at lows

• Delta flips positive

• VWAP flattens or curls up

Targets:

• 6,976

• 7,000+

Stop:

• Acceptance below the 20DMA

Notes:
Tactical long only. Size down.

🔴 A+ Setup — ATH Rejection Short (Conditional)

Zone: 7,017–7,025
Trigger:

• Push into ATH

• Immediate rejection

• Delta divergence

• VWAP fails to follow

Targets:

• 6,976

• 6,964

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 7,025

Notes:
Only short at supply.
No mid-range hero shorts.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No boredom trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a patience day.
The structure is bullish — let it pay you on pullbacks, not emotions.

And one more time so it sticks:
🍼 Baby account stays closed early.
Grind first. Direction later.
You already know where your best trades come from.

SPY (15Min)

Awesome holds of our 687 demand leading to a strong day yesterday. We were able to break above the previous week highs at 690.67/691.35. We now need to see those previous highs defend as new lows.

Would be great to get a SPY pullback to that demand. We are now up at the ATH 695. Will be cautious of any rejections up here.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template