⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/23/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at structure
Theme: Consolidation → Reclaim or fail decides direction

🧭 Context

Not much has changed — and that’s the signal.
We are consolidating above key demand, which means the market is pausing, not resolving.

This is a compression environment:
👉 Hold 6,904–6,923 = bulls stay in control
👉 Lose structure / 50DMA = weakness creeps back in
👉 Real upside only comes with a 20DMA reclaim

Size stays light until price commits.

Market personality:
• Balanced trade
• False starts likely
• Next real move needs acceptance, not hope

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,923–6,904 — Primary demand / must-hold zone

• 6,866 — Rotation support

• 6,800 — 100DMA / major downside test

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,955 — Near-term supply

• 6,976 — 20DMA / trigger level

• 7,017 — Expansion target

🟢 A+ Setup — Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,923–6,904
Trigger:

• Pullback into demand

• Higher low holds

• Delta stabilizes → turns positive

• VWAP supports price

Targets:

• 6,955

• 6,976

• Extension: 7,017 if acceptance occurs

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,904

Notes:
This is the only clean long inside consolidation.
No mid-range guessing.

🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reclaim Long

Zone: Acceptance above 6,976
Trigger:

• Clean reclaim + hold

• No immediate rejection

• Delta expansion

• VWAP aligned above price

Targets:

• 7,017

Stop:

• Back below 6,955

Notes:
This is where the next leg starts — or doesn’t.
No chasing late breakouts.

🔴 A+ Setup — 50DMA Failure Short

Zone: Acceptance below the 50DMA
Trigger:

• Failed hold of 6,904–6,923

• Lower high on retest

• Delta turns negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,866

• 6,800

Stop:

• Reclaim back above the 50DMA

Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a panic breakdown.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No overtrading inside the range.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a wait-for-clarity day.
Consolidation punishes impatience.

Small size.
Fewer clicks.
Let price earn your risk.

And yes — baby account stays closed early.
You already know how this movie ends if you don’t.

SPY (1HR)

No change from yesterday:

The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.

Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.

Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template