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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/23/26
1/23/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at structure
Theme: Consolidation → Reclaim or fail decides direction
🧭 Context
Not much has changed — and that’s the signal.
We are consolidating above key demand, which means the market is pausing, not resolving.
This is a compression environment:
👉 Hold 6,904–6,923 = bulls stay in control
👉 Lose structure / 50DMA = weakness creeps back in
👉 Real upside only comes with a 20DMA reclaim
Size stays light until price commits.
Market personality:
• Balanced trade
• False starts likely
• Next real move needs acceptance, not hope
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,923–6,904 — Primary demand / must-hold zone
6,866 — Rotation support
6,800 — 100DMA / major downside test
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,955 — Near-term supply
6,976 — 20DMA / trigger level
7,017 — Expansion target
🟢 A+ Setup — Demand Hold Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,923–6,904
Trigger:
Pullback into demand
Higher low holds
Delta stabilizes → turns positive
VWAP supports price
Targets:
6,955
6,976
Extension: 7,017 if acceptance occurs
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,904
Notes:
This is the only clean long inside consolidation.
No mid-range guessing.
🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reclaim Long
Zone: Acceptance above 6,976
Trigger:
Clean reclaim + hold
No immediate rejection
Delta expansion
VWAP aligned above price
Targets:
7,017
Stop:
Back below 6,955
Notes:
This is where the next leg starts — or doesn’t.
No chasing late breakouts.
🔴 A+ Setup — 50DMA Failure Short
Zone: Acceptance below the 50DMA
Trigger:
Failed hold of 6,904–6,923
Lower high on retest
Delta turns negative
VWAP caps price
Targets:
6,866
6,800
Stop:
Reclaim back above the 50DMA
Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a panic breakdown.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No overtrading inside the range.
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a wait-for-clarity day.
Consolidation punishes impatience.
Small size.
Fewer clicks.
Let price earn your risk.
And yes — baby account stays closed early.
You already know how this movie ends if you don’t.
SPY (1HR)
No change from yesterday:
The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.
Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.
Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
