⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/22/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above support / Bearish below 50DMA
Theme: Higher-low attempt → Reclaim vs fail

🧭 Context

Today is about structure.
The market’s job is to turn the Tues/Wed highs into higher lows — if it can’t, downside opens again.

We are in a prove-it zone:
👉 Hold prior highs = upside continuation
👉 Lose them + lose the 50DMA = rotation lower

No assumptions. Let price show its hand.

Market personality:
• Two-sided trade
• Reclaims matter
• Breaks without acceptance will fail

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,923–6,904 — Tues/Wed highs → must hold for bulls

• 6,866 — Prior demand / rotation low

• 6,800 — 100DMA / major downside test

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,955 — Near-term supply

• 6,976 — 20DMA / key reclaim

• 7,017 — Major breakout supply

🟢 A+ Setup — Higher-Low Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,923–6,904
Trigger:

• Pullback into prior highs

• Support holds / higher low forms

• Delta stabilizes → turns positive

• VWAP holds below price

Targets:

• 6,955

• 6,976 (20DMA)

• Extension: 7,017 if momentum builds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,904

Notes:
This is the clean bullish trade today.
If this zone fails, stand down on longs.

🔴 A+ Setup — 50DMA Failure Short

Zone: Acceptance below the 50DMA
Trigger:

• Failed hold of Tues/Wed highs

• Lower high on retest

• Delta turns negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,866

• 6,800 (100DMA)

Stop:

• Reclaim back above the 50DMA

Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a breakdown chase.

🟡 Secondary Setup — Reclaim & Go Long

Zone: Acceptance above 6,976 (20DMA)
Trigger:

• Clean reclaim + hold

• No immediate rejection

• Delta expansion

• VWAP supports price

Targets:

• 7,017

Stop:

• Back below 6,955

Notes:
Only take this if acceptance is clear — no chasing.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No early chop trades. No forcing.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a decision day, not a conviction day.
Let structure form first — then act.

And say it out loud:
Baby account stays closed early.
You already know you see direction later.
Trade calm. Trade less. Trade better.

SPY (30Min)

The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.

Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.

Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template