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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/22/26
1/22/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 30 Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish above support / Bearish below 50DMA
Theme: Higher-low attempt → Reclaim vs fail
🧭 Context
Today is about structure.
The market’s job is to turn the Tues/Wed highs into higher lows — if it can’t, downside opens again.
We are in a prove-it zone:
👉 Hold prior highs = upside continuation
👉 Lose them + lose the 50DMA = rotation lower
No assumptions. Let price show its hand.
Market personality:
• Two-sided trade
• Reclaims matter
• Breaks without acceptance will fail
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,923–6,904 — Tues/Wed highs → must hold for bulls
6,866 — Prior demand / rotation low
6,800 — 100DMA / major downside test
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,955 — Near-term supply
6,976 — 20DMA / key reclaim
7,017 — Major breakout supply
🟢 A+ Setup — Higher-Low Long (Primary)
Zone: 6,923–6,904
Trigger:
Pullback into prior highs
Support holds / higher low forms
Delta stabilizes → turns positive
VWAP holds below price
Targets:
6,955
6,976 (20DMA)
Extension: 7,017 if momentum builds
Stop:
Acceptance below 6,904
Notes:
This is the clean bullish trade today.
If this zone fails, stand down on longs.
🔴 A+ Setup — 50DMA Failure Short
Zone: Acceptance below the 50DMA
Trigger:
Failed hold of Tues/Wed highs
Lower high on retest
Delta turns negative
VWAP caps price
Targets:
6,866
6,800 (100DMA)
Stop:
Reclaim back above the 50DMA
Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a breakdown chase.
🟡 Secondary Setup — Reclaim & Go Long
Zone: Acceptance above 6,976 (20DMA)
Trigger:
Clean reclaim + hold
No immediate rejection
Delta expansion
VWAP supports price
Targets:
7,017
Stop:
Back below 6,955
Notes:
Only take this if acceptance is clear — no chasing.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No early chop trades. No forcing.
🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a decision day, not a conviction day.
Let structure form first — then act.
And say it out loud:
Baby account stays closed early.
You already know you see direction later.
Trade calm. Trade less. Trade better.
SPY (30Min)
The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.
Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.
Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
