⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/21/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bearish → Reactive at reclaim zones
Theme: Failed reclaim → Test of 100DMA → Thin downside risk

🧭 Context

The repeated rejections at 6,858–6,866 continue to cap upside. That zone lines up with the 01/02 lows, and the market has made it clear: supply is still in control.

We are now rotating lower into the 100DMA, which becomes the immediate decision point.
This is not a market to assume support — reclaims are required for any upside continuation.

Primary idea:
👉 Failure at prior lows = lower prices
👉 100DMA test decides the next leg
👉 Below 6,800, liquidity thins fast

Market personality:
• Weak rallies
• Pop-and-fade behavior
• Sellers still in control until proven otherwise

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,813–6,800 — 100DMA + psychological level

• 6,771 — December lows (major demand)

• 6,756 — September low / thin liquidity below

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,858–6,866 — Key rejection zone (A+ fade area)

• 6,890 — 50DMA / upside reclaim level

• 6,923–6,935 — Major supply (unlikely without regime shift)

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade Short (Primary)

Zone: 6,858–6,866
Trigger:

• Rally into supply

• Stall / rejection candles

• Delta divergence or absorption at highs

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,813

• 6,800

• Extension: 6,771 if 100DMA fails

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 6,866

Notes:
This remains the highest-probability trade.
Let price come to you — do not chase breakdowns.

🟢 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Reaction Long (Conditional)

Zone: 6,813–6,800
Trigger:

• Strong rejection wicks at the 100DMA

• Absorption at lows

• Delta stabilizes / flips positive

• VWAP flattens or curls up

Targets:

• 6,858

• 6,866 (only if momentum builds)

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,800

Notes:
This is a tactical reaction long, not a trend call.
If 6,800 fails, step aside — downside opens quickly.

🟡 Breakdown Continuation (If 6,800 Fails)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,800
Trigger:

• No responsive buying

• Delta stays negative

• Failed reclaim of 6,800

Targets:

• 6,771

• 6,756

Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,813

Notes:
Below 6,756, liquidity gets thin — expect speed, not structure.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No mid-range gambling. No forcing trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a reaction market, not a prediction market.
The edge is patience — not bravery.

Fade strength. Respect demand.
Let others argue with the tape.

SPY (1HR)

680 rejections is all we need to know... under that, weak. Above 680, we flip bullish. Stay on the side of 680 for now.

Target to the downside looks to be the 674/673 demand. Major test here & I would expect to see that today.

That is also the 100DMA level. Below that, you have the December lows at 671.20. Breaking that, you get the September high relatively quickly at 667.34.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template