⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/20/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bearish → Reactive at major reclaim / fade levels
Theme: Gap down into MA demand → Reaction day, not a trend chase

🧭 Context

Big overnight gap down into 100DMA demand with an immediate reaction off 6,847. That level mattered — price respected it on first touch, so this is now a decision zone, not an automatic breakdown.

This is not the type of morning to chase downside.
Expect:
• Violent reactions
• Short-covering pops
• Sellers needing confirmation again

Primary idea:
👉 Reactions at major MAs
👉 Fades into supply
👉 Reclaims required before any real longs

Let the market show its hand.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,847–6,868 — Overnight low + reclaim zone (very important)

• 6,830 — Interim support

• 6,800 — Psychological + continuation risk

• 6,770 — Acceleration if structure fully breaks

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,890 — 50DMA (primary fade level)

• 6,923–6,935 — Major supply / balance resistance

• 6,976 — Breakdown origin (unlikely today)

🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)

Zone: 6,890 (50DMA)
Trigger:

• Rally into the 50DMA

• Stalling / rejection candles

• Delta divergence or absorption at highs

• VWAP fails to reclaim

Targets:

• 6,868

• 6,847

• Extension: 6,830 if momentum builds

Stop:

• Clean acceptance above 6,890

Notes:
This is the best trade location today.
Do not short into the hole — let price come to supply.

🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional)

Zone: Acceptance above 6,868 → 6,890
Trigger:

• Clean reclaim of 6,868

• Hold above overnight low

• Delta turns positive

• VWAP flips supportive

Targets:

• 6,890 (50DMA)

• 6,923 only if momentum builds

Stop:

• Back below 6,847

Notes:
This is a reaction long, not a trend bet.
If reclaim fails, step aside quickly.

🟡 Breakdown Continuation (Lower Probability)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,847
Trigger:

• Failure of 100DMA

• No responsive buying

• Delta stays negative

Targets:

• 6,830

• 6,800

Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,847

Notes:
Be cautious — first breaks after gaps often fake.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No gap chasing. No emotional shorts.

🧠 Mindset Notes

Gap days punish impatience.
You don’t get paid for being early — you get paid for being right.

Let others chase.
You trade levels, reactions, and structure.

Calm execution > activity.

SPY (1HR)

Major demand between 678.50/680 on SPY. Not a zone I would be looking to short into. We also have the 50DMA here that will attempt to keep action higher. Look for a higher level like 686 for fades.

If we break below 678.50, I believe you see downside towards the 675/674 major demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template