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⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/20/26
1/20/20262 min read
Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bearish → Reactive at major reclaim / fade levels
Theme: Gap down into MA demand → Reaction day, not a trend chase
🧭 Context
Big overnight gap down into 100DMA demand with an immediate reaction off 6,847. That level mattered — price respected it on first touch, so this is now a decision zone, not an automatic breakdown.
This is not the type of morning to chase downside.
Expect:
• Violent reactions
• Short-covering pops
• Sellers needing confirmation again
Primary idea:
👉 Reactions at major MAs
👉 Fades into supply
👉 Reclaims required before any real longs
Let the market show its hand.
📊 Key Levels
🟩 Support / Demand
6,847–6,868 — Overnight low + reclaim zone (very important)
6,830 — Interim support
6,800 — Psychological + continuation risk
6,770 — Acceleration if structure fully breaks
🟥 Resistance / Supply
6,890 — 50DMA (primary fade level)
6,923–6,935 — Major supply / balance resistance
6,976 — Breakdown origin (unlikely today)
🔴 A+ Setup — Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)
Zone: 6,890 (50DMA)
Trigger:
Rally into the 50DMA
Stalling / rejection candles
Delta divergence or absorption at highs
VWAP fails to reclaim
Targets:
6,868
6,847
Extension: 6,830 if momentum builds
Stop:
Clean acceptance above 6,890
Notes:
This is the best trade location today.
Do not short into the hole — let price come to supply.
🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional)
Zone: Acceptance above 6,868 → 6,890
Trigger:
Clean reclaim of 6,868
Hold above overnight low
Delta turns positive
VWAP flips supportive
Targets:
6,890 (50DMA)
6,923 only if momentum builds
Stop:
Back below 6,847
Notes:
This is a reaction long, not a trend bet.
If reclaim fails, step aside quickly.
🟡 Breakdown Continuation (Lower Probability)
Zone: Acceptance below 6,847
Trigger:
Failure of 100DMA
No responsive buying
Delta stays negative
Targets:
6,830
6,800
Stop:
Reclaim back above 6,847
Notes:
Be cautious — first breaks after gaps often fake.
🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS
🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you
Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range
⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No gap chasing. No emotional shorts.
🧠 Mindset Notes
Gap days punish impatience.
You don’t get paid for being early — you get paid for being right.
Let others chase.
You trade levels, reactions, and structure.
Calm execution > activity.
SPY (1HR)
Major demand between 678.50/680 on SPY. Not a zone I would be looking to short into. We also have the 50DMA here that will attempt to keep action higher. Look for a higher level like 686 for fades.
If we break below 678.50, I believe you see downside towards the 675/674 major demand.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
