⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/16/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 15 Min
Bias: Neutral → Bullish if higher low holds
Theme: Range hold → Higher low attempt → Trade reactions only

🧭 Context

Yesterday gave us exactly what we waited for — a full pullback into 6,974 demand, just later than expected. Levels respected cleanly on both sides, including the fade off 7,017.

Today we are inside yesterday’s range, which means patience matters.
This is a decision day:
👉 Hold a higher low → continuation
👉 Lose 6,976 → gap pressure opens

Psych level 7,000 is the pivot for sentiment.

Market personality:
• Controlled rotations
• Clean reactions at levels
• No urgency unless range breaks

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,983–6,976 — Key demand / higher-low zone

• 6,964 — Gap fill trigger

• 6,950 — 20DMA / high-quality reaction zone

• 6,922–6,913 — Major gap demand (only if 20DMA fails)

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,017–7,025 — Range high / fade zone

🟢 A+ Setup — Higher-Low Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,983–6,976
Trigger:

• Higher low holds

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP holds below price or curls up

• Clean rejection wicks, no heavy sell absorption

Targets:

• 7,000 (psych check)

• 7,017

• Extension: 7,025 if momentum builds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,976

Notes:
This is the best long idea if structure stays intact. No chasing above 7,000 — let it rotate first.

🔴 Secondary Setup — Breakdown → Gap Rotation Short

Zone: Acceptance below 6,976
Trigger:

• Failed reclaim of 6,976

• Delta flips negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,964 (gap fill)

• 6,950 (20DMA)

Stop:

• Reclaim and hold above 6,983

Notes: Shorts only make sense after structure breaks. No mid-range gambling.

🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS

🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.
Not reduced size.
Not one contract.
Not “just to see.”

🧩 Why This Matters (Pay Attention)

Your data is screaming at you:

• Best trades come later

When you traded less:
✔ You traded better
✔ Large accounts grew correctly
✔ Big R showed up
✔ Work actually protected you

Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —
it drains you.

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No impatience trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a structure day, not a force-it day.
Let price prove direction before committing size.
Calm execution > activity.

SPY (15min)

Pullback holds at our key demand, didn't quite fully gap fill into the 690.36.

We are now opening back at the supply highs after an overnight upside move off our demand. We will now need to be cautious of another gap needing to be filled.

Pretty sloppy inside of this range on SPY. We wait for demand lows again or we wait for the supply highs to turn into higher lows.

You could look for the fade off 695 again.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template