⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/15/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral → Bullish only if key lows hold
Theme: Gap support reaction → Rotation higher → Patience over prediction

🧭 Context

Yesterday did the hard work: PDL rejection → flush → 20DMA + gap defended.
That’s real buyers, not noise.

We’ve now reclaimed Tuesday’s lows (6,976–6,983) — that’s the pivot.
Above it, ES has room to rotate higher. Below it, we slip back into balance.

This is a reaction day, not a breakout chase.

Primary idea:
👉 Hold above reclaimed lows = continuation attempt
👉 Lose them = rotation back to 20DMA
👉 Let 7,000 decide nothing (it’s just a magnet)

Market personality:
• Strong reactions at known levels
• No follow-through without pullbacks
• Best trades come after patience

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,976–6,983 — Tuesday lows / decision pivot

• 6,950 — 20DMA + gap fill (high-quality demand)

• 6,922–6,913 — Gap base / last defense

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7,000 — Psychological chop zone

• 7,017–7,025 — Prior highs / supply ceiling

🟢 A+ Setup — Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,950 (20DMA) or hold above 6,976
Trigger:

• Controlled pullback (no free-fall)

• Absorption at demand

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP supports from below or flattens

Targets:

• 6,983

• 7,000

• Extension: 7,017 if strength persists

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,950

Notes:
These are earned longs, not impulse buys.
Let price come to demand.

🔴 Secondary Setup — Failure & Rotation Short (Conditional)

Zone: Failure back below 6,976
Trigger:

• Reclaim attempt fails

• Lower high forms

• Delta flips negative

• VWAP caps price

Targets:

• 6,950

• Extension: 6,922–6,913

Stop:

• Clean acceptance back above 6,983

Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a trend call.
Be respectful of demand.

🟡 Scalp-Only Environment (If Choppy)

• Reduced size

• Fast targets

• No mid-range nonsense

• If tape feels heavy → stand down

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no hesitation)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No impatience trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

You already know this, but hear it anyway:

Stay calm.
Let others sprint — you jog.
Baby account stays closed early.
You read direction better after the market shows its hand.

Clean trades only.
Precision > activity.
Finish the session proud, not busy.

SPY (15min)

No changes on the SPY chart... levels were perfect from yesterday. Pullback under Monday lows turned into downside towards our 20DMA & 687 demand.

687 holds strong, we are now back above Monday LOD at 690. Look for that Monday LOD & rejection point from yesterday to turn into new lows. If that occurs, we are looking for more upside.

We are now up into the supply at 694. Will need to see a hold above that for upside. Cautious of how much we're gapped up.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template