⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/14/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bearish → Reactive at reclaim levels
Theme: Failed breakout → Giveback → Test of real demand

🧭 Context

Straight up on Monday, straight back down. Classic ES behavior lately: reward no one.
The overnight rejection at 6,990–6,994 was clean and decisive — that zone did its job again.

This is now a failure & rotation environment, not trend continuation.

Primary idea:
👉 Failed ATH attempt
👉 Acceptance below 6,963 = downside opens
👉 20DMA becomes the line in the sand

Market personality:
• Pop & fade rallies
• Weak bids under prior highs
• Buyers forced to prove themselves again

Trade reactions. Assume nothing.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,963 — Prior balance / decision point

• 6,950 — Interim demand (reaction likely)

• 6,940 — 20DMA / major structural test

• 6,913 — Gap open / downside magnet

• 6,870 — Acceleration if gap fills

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,991–6,994 — Major rejection zone

• 7,017 — Breakout failure supply (unlikely today)

🔴 A+ Setup — Breakdown Continuation Short (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,963
Trigger:

• Failed reclaim of 6,963

• Lower high on retest

• Delta flips negative

• VWAP caps price from above

Targets:

• 6,950

• 6,940 (20DMA)

• Extension: 6,913 if 20DMA fails

Stop:

• Clean acceptance back above 6,963

Notes:
This is a rotation short, not a panic short.
Be cautious into 6,950 — reactions are likely.

🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reaction Long (Conditional)

Zone: 6,940 (20DMA)
Trigger:

• Strong rejection wicks

• Absorption at lows

• Delta stabilizes / turns positive

• VWAP flattens or curls up

Targets:

• 6,963

• 6,990 only if momentum rebuilds

Stop:

• Acceptance below 6,940

Notes:
This is a tactical long, not a swing.
If 20DMA fails, step aside — gap risk increases fast.

🟡 Rejection Fade — Failed Rally Short

Zone: 6,990–6,994
Trigger:

• Pop into supply

• Immediate rejection

• Delta divergence

• VWAP stays below price

Targets:

• 6,963

• 6,950

Stop:

• Acceptance above 6,994

Notes:
Do not short late. Let price come to you.

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No revenge trades. No mid-range gambling.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a repair day, not a breakout day.
Let others fight the tape — you wait for structure.
Calm trades. Clean levels. Small size early.

And yes — baby account stays closed until direction proves itself.
You usually see it later for a reason. Trust that.

If you want, I can compress this into a one-screen execution checklist for the open.

SPY (30min)

Not loving much inside this range on SPY... Key level I would watch is Monday LOD. This is where that vertical upside started.

If we hold that spot, we could see the market maintain. Below Monday LOD, more downside could come in.

Only key demand I trust here is down at the 20DMA & 687.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template