⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/13/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias:Neutral → Lean Fade unless acceptance above CPI high
Theme: CPI relief pop → Liquidity test → Acceptance vs rejection decides the day

🧭 Context

CPI came in as expected — that’s not bullish fuel, that’s permission for a reaction.
The move to 7036 at 8:30 is the market clearing stops and testing supply, not proving strength.

Primary idea:
👉 CPI high = new reference point
👉 Acceptance = continuation
👉 Rejection = fade back into range

Market personality post-CPI:
• Fast impulse
• Then decision
• Then real direction

Do nothing until price tells you which one it is.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 7010–7006 — Prior ATH / first pullback magnet

• 6990 — Major pivot (fails = air pocket)

• 6963 — CPI fade target / value below

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 7036 — CPI spike high (very important)

• 7045–7050 — Extension only if CPI high accepts

🔴 A+ Setup — CPI Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone: 7030–7036
Trigger:

• Failure to hold above CPI high

• Upper wicks / stalled candles

• Delta diverges or flips negative

• VWAP holds above price

Targets:

• 7010

• 6990

• Extension (only if weak): 6963

Stop:

• Clean 30-min acceptance above 7036

Notes:
This is the most common CPI outcome.
Expected number → pop → fade → rotate.
No early shorts. Let it fail first.

🟢 Secondary Setup — CPI Acceptance Long (Conditional)

Zone: Acceptance above 7036
Trigger:

• Hold above CPI high for 2+ candles

• Delta expands with price

• VWAP below price, not chasing it

Targets:

• 7045

• 7050+ only if momentum stays clean

Stop:

• Back below 7030

Notes:
If CPI high accepts, market is repricing — don’t fight it.
This is not a fade if acceptance is real.

🟡 Chop / No-Trade Scenario

If price:
• Whipsaws 7010–7036
• Loses delta clarity
• VWAP slices through price repeatedly

👉 Stand down
CPI chop eats accounts.

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no dojis)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price (no hero trades)
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at 7036 or 7010, not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing CPI candles. No revenge fades.

🧠 Mindset Notes

CPI already did its job.
Now the market shows its hand.
Your job is to react, not impress.

Stay calm.
Keep the baby account closed early — this is headline volatility.
Trade later, trade cleaner, trade smarter.

SPY (30min)

First thing I'll start with is that this price action over the past week has been hidious to look at. Just looking at this 30 min chart, there is no fluidity, no beauty to the action. It's spastic, it's unpredictable.

Now, we can watch the 693/694 zone today. Previous highs & holds within this zone yesterday.

Below 693, we should see a quick move lower into the 690 demand.

If we maintain the 694, this market maintains higher today.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template