⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/12/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Cautious / Two-way → Reactive only
Theme: ATH rejection → Failed continuation → Respect downside rotations

🧭 Context

ES tagged ATH and fully rejected overnight, once again failing to produce clean multi-day continuation. This market continues to reward reaction, not prediction.

We are now back below 6,990 and below Friday’s long trigger near 6,976, which shifts the tone from momentum to distribution risk. The Monday high at 6,963.75 is a critical decision point — acceptance below it favors continuation lower.

Key takeaway:
👉 Upside attempts are being sold.
👉 Downside rotations are faster than upside follow-through.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,936–6,940 — Near-term breakdown trigger

• 6,925 — Intermediate pause

• 6,913 — Gap fill + 20DMA (major decision level)

• 6,886 — Deeper demand / extension target

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,963.75 — Prior Monday high / key failure zone

• 6,977 — Thursday HOD

• 6,990 — Failed breakout / supply

• 7,006 — Extreme extension / unlikely without acceptance

🟢 Bullish Case

• ES must reclaim and hold above 6,977

• Acceptance above prior supply is required — no wick-only pops

Targets:
6,990 → 7,006

Notes:
Expect retest rejections at these highs. Longs only make sense if acceptance is clean and sustained.

🔴 Bearish Case

• Favorite short below 6,936

• Momentum increases quickly into 6,913 (20DMA + gap)

Targets:
6,936 → 6,913 → 6,886

Notes:
Be cautious at the 20DMA — reactions are likely, but acceptance below it opens the door to acceleration.

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption shows at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highsh. No guessing bottoms

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a failed-breakout environment.
Patience beats aggression.
Let levels confirm — don’t fight rotation speed.

Trade less. Execute cleaner.
The edge is in waiting for failure, not forcing continuation.

SPY (1HR

Between 687 & 691 is quite a difficult zone to read. No real consistency to go off of between here. I would tread lightly. I don't mind looking for the 691 level to turn into a lower high today. Pop & fade into that supply looks valid. The move lower into 687 looks very possible to retest that demand.

Under 686.38, we have the gap to fill into 684. Below that, we have the 680 major demand.

Reclaim the 691.66 & we are back towards the ATH.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template