⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/09/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bullish while above support → Reactive only
Theme: Defended value → Patience pays → No forced shorts

🧭 Context

The 6,950 area continues to show real strength, backed by prior large institutional interest (1,100-lot defense earlier this week). Despite a choppy session yesterday, price held higher and maintained structure, which matters more than momentum right now.

This morning we’re holding above 6,957–6,963, keeping the short-term bias constructive. Until proven otherwise, this market is being supported — not distributed.

Key takeaway:
👉 Respect the defense.
👉 Don’t get cute fading strength.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,963–6,957 — Prior highs / must-hold zone

• 6,946–6,940 — Structural support / line in the sand

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,977 — Overnight high

• 6,991 — Upside continuation target

• 7,010 — Major supply / extension zone

🟢 Bullish Case

• ES continues to hold above 6,963

• Acceptance above 6,977

• Clean continuation toward 6,991

Targets:
6,977 → 6,991 → stretch toward 7,010

Notes: No chasing. Prefer pullbacks that hold structure.

🔴 Bearish Case

• Only interested in shorts below 6,940

• Breakdown opens rotation lower and invalidates the bullish structure

Anything above 6,940 is noise — not a short.

🧩 SMART Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption shows at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 9:45–11:00 AM
🚫 No boredom trades. No early fades into support.

🧠 Mindset Notes

This is a structure-respecting market.
Let levels do the work.
Trade what’s confirmed — not what feels expensive.

Clean reads. Calm execution.
Let the market come to you.

SPY (30min)

Want to see SPY hold on to 689 today. If we fail back below that, we are back in the shit show from yesterday.

Looks like the rejection highs are coming in around 691 this morning.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template