⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/08/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral → Reactive
Theme: Patience first → Direction later → Capital preserved

🧭 Context

Price failed to hold above the 6,957–6,963 high — a key area that rejected on Tuesday and gave back momentum. That failure keeps risk elevated near highs and puts the focus back on reaction, not prediction.

This is not a day to force early trades. Direction should become clearer later in the session.
👉 Baby account stays closed early.
You trade best when structure is defined — protect that edge.

Calm market. Calm execution. Let others rush.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,932 — First downside reaction level

• 6,913 — 20DMA / key decision point

• 6,870 — Gap-fill target under failure

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,957–6,963 — Major rejection zone

• 6,985–7,010 — ATH supply / low RR zone

🟢 Bullish Case

• Reclaim and acceptance above 6,963

• Look for pullback scalps toward the 20DMA only

• Avoid chasing highs near 7,000 — RR is poor

Targets:
6,985 → 7,010

🔴 Bearish Case

• Failure below 6,932

• Continuation risk into 6,913 (20DMA)

• Under 6,913 → gap fill toward 6,870

This is where downside can accelerate.

🧩 SMART Confirmation (Required)

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 10.30-12:00 PM
🚫 No chasing. No forcing. No early-session ego trades.

🧠 Mindset Rule (Non-Negotiable)

• Stay calm.

• Let the session show its hand.

• Baby account opens only after structure improves.

You don’t get paid for being early.
You get paid for being right — with size, later.

SPY (30min)

The rejections at Monday highs is the key today... if we see fails there, I believe we are looking for a downside move on the SPY. Under 686, we should see an aggressive downside move towards 684. Under 20DMA & 684, you will enter the gap towards 682.

Only upside situation is a reclaim of 698.43.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template