⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/07/26

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Bullish above 6,940 → Reactive at highs
Theme: Higher low confirmed → Retest > extension

🧭 Context
The holds above 6,940 remain very clean, forming a higher low above last Friday’s high — a constructive bullish signal. While a gap still looms below, yesterday’s defense showed real strength and willingness to keep price elevated.

Caution is warranted into 6,994. Acceptance above that level opens the door to 7,010.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,963 → 6,958 — Ideal pullback / retest long zone

• 6,940 → 6,932 — Demand shelf

• 6,913 — 20DMA + gap fill target

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,994 — Prior high / reaction zone

• 7,010 — Upside expansion target

🟢 Bullish Case

• Primary setup: Pullback long between 6,958–6,963

• Look for absorption and buyer defense

• Targets: 6,994 → 7,010

🔴 Bearish Case

• Shorts only make sense below 6,932

• Acceptance lower opens a move into the 20DMA at 6,913

🧩 SMART Confirmation (Required)
1️⃣ Directional candle — clean push, no overlap
2️⃣ Delta confirms price (no divergence)
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
4️⃣ Absorption shows at your level, not mid-range

⏳ Best execution window: 9:45–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No impatience trades.

🧠 Mindset Notes
No chasing highs.
Let price come to your levels.
Trade the retest — not the excitement.

SPY (30min)

The retest of the 689 level was perfect yesterday. Definitely a clean reason to look for that long. We hit ATH into EOD yesterday.

Today, I would love to see us move back towards the 688.62/689.43 for another retest long entry. The move in the afternoon was pretty straight up, a retracement would serve us well.

Look for holds over the P-ATH at 691.66 to potential keep this market higher

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template