⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 01/06/25

Ticker: /ES
Timeframe: 1HR
Bias: Neutral → Reactive at key levels
Theme: Supply rejection overhead → Gap risk below → Patience over prediction

🧭 Context
ES pushed cleanly higher yesterday off the 6,940 area and rejected perfectly into the 6,963 supply. That upper band (6,963–6,970) continues to act as active supply, with repeated failures and no sustained acceptance.

Until proven otherwise, this is still a two-sided auction.
Above 6,970 opens the door to a 7,000 run — but we need acceptance, not just a poke.

Below current price, a gap risk remains. A break under 6,932.75 exposes a fast move into 6,913 and the 20DMA — a location of interest, not fear.

👉 Let price come to you.

📊 Key Levels

🟩 Support / Demand

• 6,940 → 6,932 — Pivot / gap trigger zone

• 6,913 — 20DMA + gap fill (primary long interest)

• 6,890 — Deeper demand / failure test

🟥 Resistance / Supply

• 6,963 → 6,969 — Active supply / rejection zone

• 6,970+ — Acceptance opens path to 7,000

🟢 A Setup — Pullback Long
Zone: 6,913 (20DMA) or lower at 6,890
Trigger:

• Gap fill into 6,913

• Absorption + defense on order flow

• Delta stabilizes / flips
  Targets:

• 6,940 → 6,963
  Stop:

• Clean loss below level / failed defense
  Notes:
  This is the preferred long. Let the market do the work.

🔴 A Setup — Breakdown Short
Zone: Acceptance below 6,932
Trigger:

• Clean break and failed reclaim of 6,932

• Negative delta builds

• VWAP overhead
  Targets:

• 6,913 → 6,890
  Stop:

• Reclaim back above 6,940
  Notes:
  Gap logic only works if acceptance holds — otherwise stand down.

🧩 SMART Confirmation (Required)
1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop)
2️⃣ Delta agrees with price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at level — not mid-range

⏳ Best window: 9:45–11:00 AM
🚫 No chasing highs. No guessing lows.

🧠 Mindset Notes
This is a location-driven day, not a momentum hunt.
Let supply prove itself or let demand defend — don’t force either.

Precision > activity.
Wait for the market to invite you in.

SPY (30min)

Gap is below 686.38, will be looking for that short opportunity today. Target would be the 20DMA at 684.If we continue to maintain that 686 gap fill level, we may just trade within yesterday's range. Supply highs at 689.27.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.

• Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template